Should I wait for the market to crash before investing?

No. don’t wait for “calm.” Markets rarely feel calm in real time, and some of the best days tend to arrive right next to the worst days. If you sit out during scary headlines, you risk missing the rebound that often follows volatility. J.P. Morgan notes that over the last 20 years, six of the ten best days occurred within two weeks of the ten worst days, which is one key reason long-term investors focus on time in the market rather than timing the market.

Key takeaways

  • Don’t wait for “calm.” The market’s best days often appear near its worst ones, a timing that is nearly impossible to predict.
  • If you invest from paychecks, you’re already buying more shares on dips (DCA). Keep going.
  • Long-term success typically stems from the time invested, a steady savings habit, and a portfolio that can withstand market fluctuations.

Video Here:

“Should I wait before the market comes down to start investing? I’d say NO. Absolutely not. The market is too unpredictable. It’s easy to look at an S&P 500 chart in hindsight and think, ‘That was the bottom,’ but in the moment, it never feels that clear. When you’re putting money into a 401(k) or 403(b) every two weeks and the market dips, you’re actually buying more shares at lower prices, so when the market recovers, you own more shares to participate in that recovery.” — Luke Rudolph, STOIC Wealth Advisors.

Why “waiting for calm” usually backfires

  • Best days and worst days cluster. Miss just a handful of the best days, and your long-term results can drop dramatically. J.P. Morgan’s 2025 materials and similar analyses show how skipping the best days can cut results roughly in half. The kicker: those best days often land right after the worst days.
  • Rebounds come fast. In 2025, for example, a rough early-April drop was followed by a sharp bounce within days, exactly the kind of whiplash that punishes market-timers who wait for perfect calm.

Should I wait for the market to crash before investing?

Waiting for a crash sounds smart, until you try it. If the drop never comes (or comes after a long stretch of gains), you’ve missed time in the market. And if you guess wrong on when to re-enter, you can miss the early part of the recovery, which historically delivers an outsized slice of returns. Long-term compounding is built by staying invested, not by perfectly predicting the next headline.

“Is now a good time to get in the market?”

If your time horizon is years, “now” is usually better than “someday.” Over long periods, the S&P 500 has averaged ~10% a year before inflation (closer to 6–7% after inflation), but those returns arrive unevenly, with big up years, flat years, and down years. The way most people capture that compounding is by investing consistently, not by waiting for a perfect entry.

What your paycheck contributions are really doing

When you invest a fixed amount each paycheck, you’re using dollar-cost averaging (DCA), buying more shares when prices are lower and fewer when prices are higher. It’s a simple, disciplined way to keep moving forward without predicting anything. That’s how many 401(k) and 403(b) plans work by default, and it’s exactly what Luke is pointing to in the video.

What if I already have a lump sum, should I wait?

If you already have cash set aside, research finds that lump-sum investing tends to beat spreading it out about two-thirds of the time, because more of your money stays in the market for a longer period. Dollar-cost averaging can still be useful if it helps you stick with the plan emotionally—but it’s not a reason to sit in cash hoping for a perfect dip.

A simple plan you can start today

  1. Automate it. Set a contribution you can live with every paycheck so you capture both bad days and the rebounds that often follow. That’s the point.
  2. Diversify and zoom out. Use a sensible mix (index funds or a target-date fund can help) and evaluate progress yearly, not daily.
  3. Stick with it through the noise. History keeps reminding us that the cost of trying to time the market is missing the market.

How Stoic Wealth Advisors Helps (and How to Start)

Is Now a Good Time to Get into the Market? Yes, if your time horizon is years, don’t wait for “perfect calm.” Start with a simple plan you can stick to, rather than trying to time a bottom.

Stoic Wealth Advisors builds down-to-earth investment plans for healthcare professionals and families, with offices in Prescott and Scottsdale and the flexibility to meet in person, by phone, or virtually. We’ll help you set an automatic contribution schedule, choose a risk-appropriate portfolio, and stay consistent through the ups and downs. So you don’t lose momentum waiting for the “right” moment.

Have questions like “Should I wait for the market to crash before investing?” or “Is now a good time to get in the market?” Bring them to a quick call, and we’ll tailor next steps to your situation. Call (928) 224-3160 or reach out at StoicWealthAdvisors.com to get started.